Job Growth Erodes as Housing Bust Pushes Mobility to Record Low

Bloomberg

Raul Lopez, laid off from three construction jobs since October 2007, is focusing his search for work near Antioch, California, because his $392,000 mortgage is almost triple the price his home there would sell for today.

“If it wasn’t for the house, I’d probably move closer to Oakland, Hayward, San Leandro, places where there are jobs,” said Lopez, 36, who is married with four daughters.

The ability to relocate for employment, which helped the U.S. recover quickly after previous deep recessions, is the latest victim of the housing bust. About 12.5 percent of Americans moved in the year ended March 2009, the second-lowest ever, estimates Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, after a 60-year record low of 11.9 percent the previous year.

Local moves may rise “a little bit” in the 12 months that end this March, with long-distance migration “staying flat,” Frey said. “Both will be below normal levels from earlier in the decade.”

Some households are staying put because they owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth; others have trouble selling houses in depressed areas, economists say. The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas was down 29 percent in October from its July 2006 peak.

“One of the hallmarks of America’s labor market is a high level of mobility,” said Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, in a Jan. 3 interview in Atlanta, where he was speaking to an economics conference. “We are about to lose that.”

Stagnant Workforce

The stagnant workforce may raise the long-term trend rate for unemployment by 1 percentage point and lower economic growth 0.3 percent a year through 2012, said Michael Feroli, an economist in New York for JPMorgan Chase & Co. It has already contributed to keeping the jobless rate as much as 1.5 percentage points higher than would have been suggested by the depth of the recession, Peter Orszag, director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, estimated in July.

The U.S. economy shrank 3.8 percent in the 12 months that ended in June, the worst performance since the 1930s. Unemployment reached a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October before sliding to 10 percent in November. The rate stayed at 10 percent in December, according to the median estimate of 72 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The Labor Department will release the data on Jan 8.

Pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies have lost potential employees in the past two years as candidates are stuck with houses worth less than their mortgages, said Deborah Coogan Seltzer, a vice president in Atlanta for the Dallas-based executive search firm Pearson Partners International. Some prospects also worry it may take a year or more to sell their homes, even if they have equity in the properties, she added.

Candidates Withdraw

“It’s a constant factor,” Seltzer said. “Conservatively, in at least 70 percent of the searches I’ve worked on in the last 12-to-18 months at least one or two candidates have withdrawn from the process after they’ve investigated their real-estate situation.”

Some companies are allowing recent hires to stay where they are and use a combination of telecommuting and traveling, said Kevin Kelleher, president and chief executive officer of Danbury, Connecticut-based Cartus Corp., which specializes in relocation.

Employers and their prospects are “thinking about assignments or commuting policies rather than picking up the family and moving on,” he said.

Seltzer and Kelleher declined to provide names of specific companies.

Labor-Market Recoveries

The ability and willingness of workers to relocate has contributed to labor-market recoveries following recessions that ended in March 1975 and November 1982, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at West Chester, Pennsylvania-based Moody’s Economy.com. The unemployment rate fell 1.6 percentage points to 7.4 percent in May 1976 from a year earlier and dropped 2.5 percentage points to 8.3 percent in December 1983 from the previous December.

While some economists say the recession that began in December 2007 may have ended last summer, unemployment will fall only 0.8 percentage point to an average of 9.2 percent in 2011, according to a December Bloomberg News survey of 46 economists.

“You don’t have to be a rocket scientist” to know that unemployment will be higher and “the noninflationary speed limit, or what economists call the potential growth rate of the economy, is going to be lower as a result of the housing-related decline in labor mobility,” David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates in Toronto, said in a Jan. 4 telephone interview.

‘Negative Equity’

Almost 10.7 million homes, or 23 percent of all mortgaged properties, were worth less than the debt owed on them at the end of the third quarter, according to a Nov. 24 report from First American CoreLogic. An additional 2.3 million mortgages are approaching “negative equity” as loan defaults mount nationwide, the Santa Ana, California-based real-estate research company said.

Sixty-five percent of Nevada homeowners owed more than their houses were worth, the highest rate in the nation, according to the report. Arizona ranked second, at 48 percent, followed by Florida, Michigan and California.

States that grew the fastest during the 2002-2006 housing bubble, including Florida and Nevada, are now experiencing reversals in population trends. The number of people in Florida, where unemployment is 11.5 percent, fell 58,294 in the 12 months ended April 2009, the first decline since 1946, the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research estimated in August.

Can’t Sell

More people might have left if they had been able to sell their homes, said Jack McCabe, president of McCabe Research & Consulting in Deerfield Beach, Florida, which specializes in real estate.

“Loan modifications have been of insignificant help,” he said.

Through November, U.S. lenders had permanently renegotiated about 31,000 of the 4 million mortgages targeted for relief by the Obama administration’s foreclosure-prevention plan.

Housing woes have exacerbated a decline in worker mobility that began in 1951, when 21 percent of Americans moved, according to the Census Bureau. More families now depend on two incomes, which makes moving more complicated, said Peter Francese, a demographic-trends analyst in Exter, New Hampshire, for New York-based advertising agency Ogilvy & Mather Worldwide.

Aging Population

The aging U.S. population also reduces mobility, he said. The largest age group is 45- to 55-year-olds and the fastest- growing segment is 55- to 65-year-olds, both of which have established family and social networks that complicate relocation, Francese said.

Out-of-state moves, usually associated with job changes, remained at a record low 1.6 percent of the population for a second year in the 12 months ended March 2009, Brookings’ Frey estimates.

Anecdotal evidence suggests an even lower rate for the full year. Shipments handled by movers and paid for by individuals in the first half dropped 18 percent from January-June 2008, while employer-paid moves fell 27 percent, according to the American Moving & Storage Association, an industry trade group based in Alexandria, Virginia.

“This is our first national slump caused by a housing bubble and that ties down workers,” said Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman in a Jan. 4 interview. “It is a transitory thing, but transitory can mean several years.”

30 Year Mortgage Rates Fall To Average Of 5.09%

USA Today

Rates for 30-year home loans inched downward this week, first decline in a month, but remained above last month's record lows.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 5.09% this week, down from 5.14% a week earlier, mortgage company Freddie Mac said Thursday.

Rates dropped to a record low 4.71% in early December, pushed down by an aggressive government campaign to reduce consumers' borrowing costs, but then rose steadily the rest of the month.

The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.5% this week, from 4.54% last week, according to Freddie Mac.

Rates on five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 4.44%, unchanged from a week earlier. Rates on one-year, adjustable-rate mortgages fell to an average 4.31% from 4.33%.

The rates do not include add-on fees known as points. One point is equal to 1% of the total loan amount.

The nationwide fee for loans in Freddie Mac's survey averaged 0.7 point for 30-year and 15-year loans and 0.6 point for five-year and one-year loans.

Freddie Mac collects mortgage rates Monday through Wednesday each week from lenders around the country. Rates often fluctuate significantly, even within a day, often in line with interest rates on long-term Treasury bonds.

The Federal Reserve is pumping $1.25 trillion into mortgage-backed securities to try to bring down mortgage rates, but that money is set to run out in the spring. The goal of the program is to make home buying more affordable and prop up the housing market, including Raleigh real estate.

The central bank's policymakers have been conflicted about whether to expand or cut back a program intended to drive down mortgage rates and bolster the housing market, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

Some Fed policymakers argued that the program might need to be expanded and extended beyond its current end date of March 31, arguing that the additional dose of stimulus would be especially needed if the economic recovery were to weaken.

However, one member thought the program could be scaled back given the improvement in economic and financial conditions.

Getting the housing market back on firm footing is key to a lasting recovery. The collapse of the housing market, which dragged down home prices, was the catalyst for the longest and worst recession to hit the country since the 1930s.

Fed Reserve Officials Have Differing Views On Mortgage Buyout Program

USA Today

Some Federal Reserve policymakers last month were conflicted over whether to expand or cut back a program intended to drive down mortgage rates and bolster the housing market, according to a document released Wednesday.

Minutes of the Fed's closed-door meeting on Dec. 15-16 revealed that a "few members" thought that the Fed's $1.25 trillion program to buy mortgage securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might need to be expanded and extended beyond its current end date of March 31. Such an additional dose of stimulus would be especially needed if the economic recovery were to weaken, they argued.

However, one member thought the program could be "scaled back" given the improvement in economic and financial conditions.

The debate over the future of the program comes amid uncertainties about the vigor of the budding economic recovery.

At the December meeting, Fed policymakers decided not to make any changes to the program. At their September meeting, they opted to slow the pace of the purchases, wrapping them up by the end of March, rather than the end of 2009.

The minutes don't identify speakers by name but seeks to provide a more detailed account of the Fed's private discussions.

Some Fed officials remained concerned about the economy's ability to mount a self-sustaining recovery once government supports are removed. To that end, those officials worried that improvements seen in the housing market might be "undercut" this year as the Fed's mortgage-buying program winds down, the government's home buyer tax credits expire at the end of April and home foreclosures grow.

Getting the housing market back on firm footing is a key ingredient to a lasting recovery. The collapse of the housing market, which dragged down home prices with it, was the catalyst for the longest and worst recession to hit the country since the 1930s.

"Generally the outlook was for gains in housing activity to continue. However, some participants still viewed the improved outlook as quite tentative and again pointed to potential sources of softness," the minutes said.

To nurture the recovery, the Fed at the December meeting kept its key bank lending rate at a record low near zero and pledged to hold it there for an "extended period." The goal: low interest rates will entice people and businesses to boost spending, which will fuel economic growth.

Economists said the Fed is all but certain to leave rates at record lows at its next meeting on Jan. 26-27 and probably for a good chunk of this year.

"Overall, there is nothing here to suggest that interest rates will rise for quite some time," Paul Ashworth, economist at Capital Economics., said of the Fed minutes. Ashworth is among the economists predicting economic growth will slow in the second half of this year as President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending fades.

Most Fed officials don't currently see inflation as a problem because companies have "little ability to raise their prices" in the fragile economic environment. But they had mixed views about inflation risks.

Some noted that rising prices of oil and other commodities could boost inflation pressures down the road. Others thought investors' expectations of inflation could edge up because of large federal government budget deficits and vast sums of money the Fed pumped into the economy to fight the financial crisis.

However, others predicted that the sluggish recovery and "slack" in the economy — meaning factories operating well below capacity and the weak labor market — would keep inflation under wraps.

At the December meeting, Fed staff gave several presentations on research into "inflation dynamics."

The biggest challenge facing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues is to decide when to start boosting interest rates. Moving too soon could short-circuit the recovery. Waiting too long could unleash inflation.

Small Improvements That Sell

MSN

With very little effort, you can transform an average house into an above-average property that is sure to get second looks from buyers. Follow these guidelines to make sure your property stands out above the rest:

Paint inside and out
Fresh paint is the most cost-effective and profitable improvement you can make, even if your home doesn't need a new coat. Paint the interior walls a neutral color and the ceilings white to make rooms look bigger.

New lights
Replace outdated fixtures. This inexpensive improvement can update old decor that might have discouraged buyers.

New flooring
Install new carpet, linoleum, or tile, and refurbish hardwood floors if needed. Choose a neutral color for new carpeting. New flooring will increase the market value of your home, while shabby floors can kill a sale.

Planted landscape
Attractive front and back yards boost the value of any property. Mow the lawn, trim shrubs, and plant new bedding flowers. Clean up perennial beds. Plant some trees if the yard is barren, especially in the front parkway. Sweep the patio or deck and decorate with potted plants and flowers.

Inspection

At a cost of $200-$300, it could be worth it to hire your own home inspector to give your entire home a thourough going-over before any potential buyers do. This is especially true if you have let any routine maintenance fall by the wayside for a number of years.

Completed repairs
Before listing your home for sale, make all minor repairs and catch up on maintenance. If you've deferred maintenance, get a professional home inspection. If the inspection reveals problems, make the repairs before listing the home. If you don't, the buyer will probably discount the offer price for more than the cost of repairs or replacement.

A clean garage
If you use your garage for storage, clean it out and rent a storage space. Paint the interior white. If your garage is unfinished, install wallboard or build storage shelves on the back wall. A clean garage will help solidify a buyer's impression of a home in move-in condition.

As you can see, there are many small improvements you can do yourself on a limited budget without venturing into an entire home remodeling project.

Price Data Is Good News For Home Buyers

Wall Street Journal

Homes are now cheap.

No, not everywhere in the country (more about that later). And, even after the latest Case-Shiller data, it's anyone's guess when they might actually turn around and start rising steadily again. It could be years.

But if you've been thinking of buying a home to live in, the current meltdown is a big opportunity.

You might not know it from the coverage of the latest data. Too many, as usual, are focused on the trees instead of the forest. The 10 and 20-city composite indexes were unchanged between September and October. And the numbers were lower than a year ago, but the rate of decline seems to have slowed: Two facts that are both obvious and practically useless. Indeed the latest survey contains a whole truckload of information for all those who prefer data to knowledge.

But long-term fundamentals are more important than the short-term noise. And it's generally a mistake to pay too much attention to doomsayers or to overthink these things.

Here's some home truths.

Real estate prices in the Case-Shiller 10-city index have now fallen by a stunning 30% from their 2005 peak. Nothing like it has been seen since the Great Depression–and, according to some sources, not then either. Obviously for anyone who bought a home at the peak of the market this has been a disaster. But for those thinking of buying a home now this is exceptionally good news.

And at the same time, mortgage rates have also plummeted. In 2006 you had to pay an average of about 6.4% on a 30-year fixed loan, according to the Federal Reserve. Right now you can get deals for about 5%.

Put the two together, and it's a winning combination.

The Case-Shiller 10-city data go back to 1987. I ran the numbers comparing the index values, mortgage rates and average weekly earnings. Net conclusion: On average–an important point I'll return to shortly–buying a home now is as cheap as it was in the mid-1990s, when houses were an absolute steal.

No, the Case-Shiller data aren't perfect. The biggest complaint is that they are weighted too much towards the coasts and the big "bubble" cities like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix.

So I decided to run the same analyses–average prices, mortgage rates and weekly earnings–for the home price data tracked by the U.S. Census. Those numbers go back further than Case-Shiller, to 1972.

You can see the results in the two charts here.

The top chart simply compares the average home price to average weekly earnings. Yes, there has been a clear, gently rising long-term trend: Over many decades people have been choosing to spend more on housing, buying bigger and better homes. But the bubble, and subsequent collapse, still stand out clearly. By this measure, median homes nationwide today are about as cheap–when compared to earnings–as they were in the early 1990s.

Yet back then mortgage rates were around 8, 9 or even 10%.

If you buy an average home today, and take out a 30-year mortgage at 5%, the annual bill for interest and repayment of principal will come to about 19 times typical weekly earnings (If you get the $8,000 refundable tax credit too, it drops below 18 times). As you can see from the bottom chart, we haven't seen it that low since the early 1970s.

You can hear the objections. Doomsayers ask: What about these waves of mortgage resets coming in the next two years? What about all the unemployment? And the foreclosures? And so on.

These are all valid arguments for refusing to buy homes when they are expensive, or even averagely priced. But the whole point about markets is that they adjust. Prices are now cheap. They reflect this bad news, and more. If you have a stable income, and you can get a 30-year mortgage at 5% or so, and you are willing to drive a hard bargain on a home in this market, this is your time.

Over and over again, history suggests that the best investments are the ones no one wants–gold when it was $260 an ounce, Amazon.com when it fell below $10 in 2002, Hong Kong shares during the SARS "crisis" in 2003, and so on. If an investment feels comfortable, it's should make you nervous. If it makes you really nervous, that's probably good.

The biggest objection, or caveat, is one I hinted at earlier. These are average prices  - check with a realator for prices on Raleigh real estate. The variations are truly remarkable. Prices in places like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix have roughly halved from the highs in early 2006, according to Case-Shiller. Meanwhile in cities like New York and Boston they have fallen by a fifth or less. It's hard to argue that some of the most resilient areas are cheap. New York real estate prices are still up about 75% since the start of the decade. Maybe they have much further to fall.

But outside of these hot spots, real estate is now cheap.

Citigroup To Suspend Foreclosures For 30 Days

USA Today

WASHINGTON — Citigroup will suspend foreclosures and evictions for 30 days in a temporary break for about 4,000 borrowers during the holiday season.

The New York-based bank said Thursday the suspension will run from Friday through Jan. 17. It applies only to borrowers whose loans are owned by Citi. Borrowers who make payments to Citi but whose loans are owned by other investors are out of luck.

"We want our borrowers to have a much less stressful time, to spend their time with their families during the holidays as opposed to worrying about their homes," Sanjiv Das, head of the company's mortgage division, said in an interview.

The suspension means Citi will halt foreclosure sales and stop evicting homeowners from properties it has already seized. The company projects it will help 2,000 homeowners with scheduled foreclosure sales and another 2,000 that were due to receive foreclosure notices including holders of Raleigh real estate.

Das also said the company is working on "some long-term fundamental alternatives" to foreclosure, but declined to be specific. "We know that moratoriums are not permanent solutions," he said.

Most major lenders suspended foreclosures last winter while the Obama administration developed its $75 billion loan modification program. Foreclosures picked up again after those suspensions lifted. In recent months, they have fallen as banks evaluate whether borrowers qualify for the government program.

Citi has enrolled about 100,000 borrowers in the Obama program, but had made only about 270 of those modifications permanent as of the end of last month, according to a Treasury Department report. But Das said the low number resulted from a "reporting error" and said it will rise dramatically by year-end.

"I have put a lot of pressure on my team to make sure that there is almost nothing left in the pipeline," he said.

Homebuyer Tax-Credit Extension Fails as Catalyst

Bloomberg

President Barack Obama’s extension last month of a tax credit for first-time homebuyers failed to stir optimism among homebuilders or stock investors about the industry’s prospects.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index and a Standard & Poor’s index of homebuilding shares dropped after Obama signed the legislation on Nov. 6. The chart tracks these indicators since 2000.

Homebuyers received another five months, until April 30, to take advantage of the government’s $8,000 credit. They also became eligible for an additional $6,500 credit if they owned their previous residence for at least five years.

“The extension has not materially helped traffic or sales despite the program’s expansion,” Carl Reichardt, a Wells Fargo analyst, wrote yesterday in a report.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo index, an indicator of builders’ confidence, fell to 16 this month from 17 in November. None of the 47 economists in a Bloomberg News survey expected the decline. Readings below 50 show that most participants are pessimistic.

S&P’s industry gauge, consisting of builders in the S&P 500, MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600 indexes, dropped 8.4 percent from Nov. 6 to yesterday. S&P’s broadest index of U.S. stocks rose 4 percent during the period.

The shifts in sentiment and share prices were at odds with the growth in November housing starts and building permits that the Commerce Department reported today. Starts rose 8.9 percent to an annual rate of 574,000 homes. Permits climbed 6.9 percent to a 584,000 pace including such items as vacation homes in Atlantic Beach NC, the fastest since November 2008.